Chaos, butterflies and IT change

Recently Edward Lorenz who popularized the concept of the "butterfly effect" passed away. The butterfly effect, according one article, is when "small differences in a dynamic system, like the weather, could trigger vast and often unsuspected results." In other words, Lorenz theorized a mere flap of a butterfly’s wings, while generally insignificant, could, given the right set of conditions, cause a subtle change that sets of a sequence of events that leads to a raging thunderstorm.

In the world of technology, those thunderstorms are often rendered in the form of an application slowdown, or worse, an IT outage. The butterfly that caused the outage can often be traced back to change, whether that change was planned (as in software upgrade) or unplanned (as in a fault failure). More often than not, someone pushed a button, turned a dial or pulled a lever that caused an IT outage. In fact, Gartner's research "consistently shows that 80% of mission-critical outages are caused by people and process issues, not by technology failures."

Yet process or best practices alone is not enough. Despite being an avid proponent of ITIL, one of our customers was challenged by the fact that 60% of incidents were caused by planned or approved changes. What’s the solution? Visually model the dependencies among dynamic IT infrastructure components to better understand the potential impact of planned change before they are made - even if that change seems insignificant, like the wing flap of a butterfly’s wing.

- Siki